Changing Dynamics of China-India Relations: CPEC and Prospects for Pakistan

CPPG’s seventh and latest Position Paper “Chaning Dynamics of China-India Relations: CPEC and Prospects for Pakistan” authored by Dr. Saeed Shafqat and Saba Shahid is now available online.

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ABSTRACT
In the eyes of many Pakistani and international observers, the China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is changing the dynamics of
geopolitics and socio-economic relations in South Asia. Is this likely
to dampen or intensify rivalry between India and Pakistan? Indian
policy makers and analysts assert that the CPEC is China’s device
to ‘encircle India’ and Pakistan is only a collaborator in this scheme,
while Pakistani policy makers claim that it is a ‘game changer’ and is
solidifying the China-Pakistan strategic partnership. It is noteworthy
that China has demonstrated enormous skill in managing ‘territorial
disputes’ with India, while continuing to expand their trade and commerce.
In fact India- China economic relations are booming with
trade and investment to the tune of over 80 billion US dollars, while
China- Pakistan trade and investment is less than 18 billion US dollars.
Given this reality would China encourage India to join the CPEC
and expand its members? This paper explores some of these questions
and evaluates the role of India in determining how the BRI
will enfold in South Asia. India’s continued objection, particularly of
the CPEC, could ignite regional rivalry, which in turn could compel
China to review its time-tested policy of ‘non-interference’. As the
CPEC unfolds, China’s biggest challenge in South Asia would be
managing India-Pakistan relations, yet primary responsibility lies
with the two nations themselves.

Click here to read or download this position paper